For the first time, college football is expanding to a 12-team playoff that stretches from mid-December to mid-January. Including conference championship games, there is now a six-week window with meaningful games to determine the national champion. The new College Football Playoff should provide the best opportunity the sport has ever had to sustain momentum from the regular season. It might seem odd that a sport would have trouble keeping fans engaged during the playoffs, but college football’s postseason has always been an outlier.

The Only Major Sport That Peaks During Regular Season

For decades, there was no true national championship, and sometimes the season would end with multiple “national champions”. Once college football finally added a single championship game, teams could finish their regular season and wait up to six weeks before playing for the title (just ask Notre Dame fans about 2012). Even with the expansion to a four-team playoff, nearly every year there was controversy over the teams selected. These quirks made the sport unique, but they also explain how college football became the only major US sport where fan engagement declines during its postseason.

Every other major sport receives a boost in fan engagement during the postseason (measured here as fans who followed in the past week), but engagement for college football fans drops by nearly 20% in December and January. The four-team playoff was a step forward from the old bowl system. It just wasn’t enough of a step to provide a lift over the regular season.

For the 30 years that Sports Poll has been studying fans, college football engagement has typically peaked in November and then declined during the bowls and playoff. The three primary ways we assess the health of a sport are: 1) avidity, 2) priority, and 3) fan engagement. In other words, how interested are people right now (avidity)? Do fans prioritize the sport over others (priority)? Are fans actively following the sport during the season (engagement)? In all three areas, college football builds toward a November peak before declining during December and January. This has been a consistent pattern for the 30 years we’ve been tracking fandom.

A Long-Term Goal Should Be to Mimic March Madness in December

Sustaining momentum from November into December would be a positive step, but it’s a low bar to clear. A better goal should be to build on the foundation from the regular season and engage new fans when games matter the most. The NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL already do this, but the best example is college basketball. College basketball interest builds from November through February before spiking during March Madness. March Madness keeps regular season fans engaged and attracts newcomers who don’t typically follow during the rest of the year. Fans watch games for schools and players they don’t know. They fill out brackets. The sport becomes a part of American culture for the entire month. It’s unrealistic to think college football will be able to duplicate that model right away, but a blueprint for a hyper-engaged postseason already exists within college sports.

Expanded Playoff Should Provide Biggest Boost to Big Ten & SEC Fans

Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 fans tend to be more engaged throughout the regular season, but engagement declines for all three during the postseason. Big Ten fans typically see the largest losses. That’s probably not a big surprise, considering the letdown from rivalry games like Ohio State/Michigan in November. On the other end, fans of “Group of 5” conference schools are less engaged throughout the season and only see a minimal loss during the postseason.

With realignment, the Big Ten and SEC are likely to secure more slots in the playoff, including seven of the twelve teams this year. This means more of their fans have a shot in December (they have “skin in the game”). It also means there are more fans available to root against their rivals in the postseason. Even if Michigan isn’t in the playoff this year, they can tune in to root against Ohio State, Indiana, and Penn State (and maybe even Big Ten newcomer Oregon).

The challenge will be engaging fans without ties to these schools. This is what college basketball does so well during March Madness. College football fans tend to be the most tribal of all American sports, so there’s no guarantee that they will follow if they don’t have skin in the game. There will undoubtedly be tweaks to improve the structure of the playoff, but even in the first year, the expanded CFP will provide college football’s best opportunity for postseason fan engagement in the sport’s 150+ years.