In last week’s Sports Business Journal, I wrote about the challenges college football faces in growing its national fan base in the realignment era. That begs the follow-up question – what are the best opportunities to grow the fan base? I cover four possibilities below.

The emergence of the “Power 2”

It’s hard to believe that twenty years ago the Big Ten was the dominant conference and the other four Power 5 conferences had similar-size fan bases. Realignment and the success of the SEC has shifted college football to a Power 2 where the popularity of the Big Ten and SEC stand above everyone else. The chart below shows the separation of the Power 2 over the past 25 years.

Change will continue. Just this past week, four schools announced they were leaving the Mountain West to join a revived Pac 12. Sports media will look much different ten years from now. Player employment contracts may be coming soon. The constant threat of change places the burden on conferences (and schools) to strengthen their fan bases or risk losing out in the future. What are the best ways to build fan bases? Here are four options, along with their pros and cons.

1. Acquire fans through expansion

The most common term for conference changes is “realignment”, but it’s really “acquisition” for the Big Ten and SEC and “reaction” for the other conferences. If we isolate Big Ten and SEC fan gains over the past 15 years, increases have mostly come from the addition of new schools. The SEC did enjoy a boost in popularity from 2006-2010 fueled by Florida, LSU, Alabama, and Auburn, but the popularity of the core 12 schools has held stable since then. It was the additions of Missouri and Texas A&M in 2012 and Oklahoma and Texas in 2024 that provided the biggest gains in fandom.

For the Big Ten, the popularity of its core 11 schools has declined over the past 25 years. Conference expansion in 2011, 2014, and 2024 helped offset those losses and keep pace with the SEC.

The benefit of adding new schools is it provides an immediate jolt to the conference fan base. The downside is that expansion can break up rivalries (like Oklahoma/Oklahoma State and Oregon/Oregon State this year), and not every school can compete at the highest level when blue chip programs come in. Someone has to finish in last place. In the big conferences, it’s often the same handful of schools who compete for the championship each year. Fans are torn. They want to play the best schools, but they don’t want to repeatedly lose to those schools.

2. Convert another school’s fans

Fandom isn’t a lifelong bond for everyone. I grew up a Michael Jordan fan but probably haven’t watched a Bulls game in more than a decade. Our team affiliations change as we get older, meet new people, move, and find new teams or players we enjoy watching. Sports Poll data shows this every year as team fan bases rise and fall.

In theory, the best college programs could build their fan bases by “converting” fans of schools from weaker conferences. If the gap widens between the Power 2 and other conferences, it could be tempting for fans in those other conferences to abandon ship and choose a school with a more realistic shot at a national title.

That scenario is much more common in pro sports. Think of LeBron James fans moving from the Cavaliers to the Lakers. College football is different. Their fans have the highest sense of belonging and the strongest connections to their local community. Many fans attended or worked at the school themselves or have friends and family who do. Those bonds are difficult to break. Some fans might jump to another school, but many would probably just follow the sport less often.

The other challenge to converting fans is that college football connections aren’t just about football. We call college fans who have the same favorite football and men’s basketball teams “aligned”. Aligned fans are the least likely to change allegiances because their connection goes beyond football. This varies by conference too. The ACC and Big 12 may have fewer fans than the Power 2, but their fans are the most aligned and therefore would be the least likely to leave.

3. Build Fans From Scratch in New Markets

The first two options are zero-sum. One school gains fans. Another loses them. The entire pie for college football shrinks because some fans stop following when their schools can’t compete at the highest level. A third option is building fandom where there are no allegiances. This is the most difficult but might provide the greatest upside for college football. The strength of pro sports lies in the largest markets – New York, LA, Chicago, Philadelphia, and more. College football is most popular in smaller markets like Birmingham, Columbus, and Knoxville. The largest markets are often untapped. Note the number of people in major markets without a favorite college team.

There is tremendous potential in those markets, but at what cost? How do you create new fans for a sport that is so closely tied to local communities, rivalries, and tradition? Growing a fan base in new areas requires more than just ensuring a game is broadcast locally or that the conference includes a school in that market. It would require creativity and heavy investment.

4. Focus on what college football does best – “belonging”

Then there is door #4. The three options above may receive the most attention today, but any strategy for growing the college fan base should focus on what the sport does better than others – “belonging”. A strategy that focuses on belonging would emphasize these elements:

• Community: College football fans have stronger connections to their teams than fans of any other sport. They want to feel like they are part of the team and follow together with other fans and the local community.
• Know the players: College fans are more likely to feel connected to their favorite teams when they know the players on the team. That’s more difficult than ever now with NIL and the transfer portal. At one extreme, Colorado brought in 68 new players in 2023 and 50 new players in 2024. With this unlikely to change anytime soon, schools must ensure fans know and connect with those players.

• Alignment: The strongest bonds occur when fans follow more than just the football team. This is one of the strengths of college sports, but most fans are not “aligned” today. Schools should find better ways to develop multi-sport connections for fans who didn’t attend the school or live in the local area.
• Rivalries: Belonging is highest when schools compete against their local rivals. In down years, winning a rivalry game can be the highlight of the year. These games shouldn’t just be viewed as replaceable dates on the calendar. It took 100+ years to build these traditions. Schools should do everything possible to protect those games.