With Lionel Messi recently starting his third (and potentially final) season in MLS, we decided to look at his impact so far and the best opportunities to grow MLS in the US.
As we highlighted last year, the best illustration of Messi’s impact is that he now ranks as Americans’ favorite pro athlete. For the year 2024, he ranked ahead of stars like LeBron James, Patrick Mahomes, and Michael Jordan. Since late 2023, he’s ranked #1 for all but one quarter. Messi is the first soccer player and first international athlete to rank as Americans’ favorite. While other stars like Pele and David Beckham previously brought star power to the US, Messi’s move has placed an even greater spotlight on the sport.
MLS Sees a Surge in “Priority”, but Some of the Messi Honeymoon Has Worn Off
When the Sports Poll team assesses the strength of a sport, the first measures we typically look at are our “priority” variables. These measures show where a sport stands in context with all the other (sports and non-sports) activities fans can do in their free time. How many people are fans or AVID fans of the sport? How many say the sport is their favorite overall? How many say a team or player from that sport is their favorite? The higher a sport, team, or athlete ranks as a priority, the more likely a fan is to engage. Relatively small changes in these metrics can lead to substantial increases in fan engagement.
MLS saw immediate increases in each of their priority metrics after Messi’s arrival in 2023. There was a honeymoon effect as some of the gains faded in 2024, but MLS has sustained growth in total fans (+3 million), AVID fans (+2 million), and favorite sport (+1 million) compared to the pre-Messi era. Of course, the biggest gain is the influx of “star power” (+10 million more people say an MLS player is their favorite athlete now). Gains have generally been stronger for Messi and Inter Miami than the league overall so far.
MLS Increases Fandom with Both Traditional & Non-Traditional Groups
Historically, soccer’s fan base has skewed younger and more diverse than the traditional major sports. With Messi’s arrival, MLS increased fandom with its core. Younger fans and Hispanics have become more interested. More Messi fans (people who name Messi as their favorite soccer player) have also migrated to MLS. MLS has also made progress with groups outside the “soccer core”, including an increase in fandom with older Americans (+3 million more fans 35+ since 2023).
Access Remains the Biggest Issue – How Many Fans Will Pay to Watch?
Messi’s move to MLS coincided with MLS transitioning most of its games to MLS Season Pass on Apple TV+, which is available via subscription. Unfortunately, a majority of MLS fans and Messi fans don’t subscribe to Season Pass yet. That leaves most fans without the ability to watch MLS (and Messi) games. When fans are asked about their access to games, MLS fans are less likely to say they have access to “all” or “most” of the games they want to watch compared to the other major sports today.
When we look at the overlap between AVID MLS fans, Messi fans, and Season Pass users, it shows tremendous potential for growth. The most immediate opportunity is with people who are AVID MLS fans and Messi fans but don’t use Season Pass. There were 5.8 million people who fell into this “opportunity” group in 2024.
“Opportunity” Group Skews Hispanic and Has Strong Connections to Teams
When we isolate the opportunity group, they are more likely to be Hispanic than AVID MLS fans overall. Many already use sports subscription services (44%), but money is a bigger concern for them (40% have less discretionary money this year). Teams are a critical part of their fandom – they already have favorite teams (88% have a favorite MLS team), and it’s more important for these fans to feel like they “belong” to their favorite teams.
With a finite amount of free time and money, competition is an issue. The opportunity group follows MLS, but they tend to prefer international soccer. They are nearly twice as likely to name international soccer as their favorite sport over MLS. They also follow more leagues, clubs, and competitions than the typical MLS fan. This may be part of the reason why a package with just MLS doesn’t hold the same appeal as the other streaming and cable services they already use. There is more to the issue than just competition and cost though.
The other challenge with diminished access is that it limits exposure to potential new fans. If parents don’t have access, it’s less likely that a kid will hear about Messi and seek out one of his games. It’s also less likely that someone will discover the sport casually. When access is limited, it places a greater burden on other fan-building “pipeline” activities like attending games or playing EA Sports FC to substitute for viewership.
The next few years should be integral for building the next generation of soccer fans. We have the most popular athlete playing in the US for at least one more season, the men’s World Cup in North America in 2026, the women’s World Cup in Brazil in 2027, and the US Olympics in 2028. We’ll be monitoring closely to see how fandom changes and if this combination of events generates gains like we saw during the soccer boom of the 90s. Yet the impact could be even greater if more fans are able to tune in to games.
