The first indication of results on British election nights has earned an unusually high reputation. Those behind it say that’s because of a big decision 20 years ago.

“As much as our work in 2004, 2016, and 2020 has taken hits for specific errors in specific states and races, the overall average error in surveys is less than it was decades ago,” Joe Lenski, co-founder of Edison Research, noted in a 2021 interview with the American Enterprise Institute. “The real issue is educating about the kind of precision you can and can’t demand from these data.”